PvX has analyzed thousands of cohorts across games and consumer apps and the pattern is clear: most teams misinterpret when to scale. They see a promising early curve and assume it's repeatable. But more often than not, what looks strong at D180 turns brittle by M6. Over time, we've built a framework that helps us separate real growth from noise, five dimensions we now use internally to decide not just who to fund, but how we judge cohort quality overall.
Margin of Safety is where it starts. Everyone loves fast paybacks. It's comforting to see an M2 breakeven. But the best-performing cohorts we've funded – those in the 80th percentile or above – consistently show >150% net ROAS by M12. The reason is simple: there's a difference between fast payback and durable return. A cohort that recoups early but stalls at 120% ROAS has no margin of safety. A slower one that compounds to 300% over time gives you the room to absorb volatility, test new channels, and still stay profitable.
Then there's Payer Retention, which I think of as the quiet signal most people overlook. The best-in-class benchmarks hover around 15% M6 and 10% M12 payer retention, but it's not the number that matters – it's what it represents. High payer retention means depth. It means your monetization design is working beyond surface-level engagement. If most of your revenue comes from a small handful of payers, you're one churn spike away from collapse. The healthiest cohorts aren't the ones that spike, but the ones that endure.
Long-Term Monetization is where endurance turns into strength. The best cohorts we've tracked continue generating 4–6% incremental ROAS monthly even beyond breakeven. That's when you know you're looking at a real business engine, one that keeps delivering value long after the initial spend. Most of these teams build monetization moments intentionally: subscription offers, personalized bundles, loyalty loops. They've designed for the long tail, not just the launch window.
Then comes Returns Consistency. The unglamorous part, but arguably the most important. One strong month doesn't make a scalable system. We've seen teams double their spend after one great campaign, only to watch performance collapse the next quarter. The best ones show predictable curves: solid M1, M3, M6 returns across cohorts and time. Consistency is what gives investors confidence. It's what makes growth fundable.
And finally, Scalability: the stress test. What happens when you double your user acquisition (UA) spend? Do your returns hold, or degrade by 50%? The strongest cohorts show resilience even at scale, with ROAS performance that barely budges. That's when UA stops being just a marketing exercise and starts behaving like a financial asset.
When I look across everything we've learned, I think the core lesson is this: scaling isn't a reward for performance, it's a responsibility. The best teams don't chase velocity; they earn it.
At PvX, we use this framework every day to decide who's ready for capital. Because when your cohorts show depth, consistency, and long-term yield, you're not just buying growth. You're compounding it.
For more information on UA financing, visit PvX Partners.
