Retail brands to send 3.9 billion messages in 2025 season
Infobip expects brands to send a record 3.9 billion messages to customers during the 2025 shopping season, marking a 15 percent increase compared to the previous year.
The figures reflect a continued shift towards digital engagement, as artificial intelligence, mobile commerce, and richer messaging channels gain traction in the retail sector.
Messaging trends
Rich Communication Services (RCS) messaging is forecast to experience rapid growth around key retail dates. Infobip predicts that global RCS message volumes will increase by 161 percent on Black Friday and 269 percent on Cyber Monday. RCS offers brands interactive interfaces within native messaging apps, supporting product discovery, personalisation, and secure transactions. Despite these gains, SMS is set to remain the main communication medium for retailers, with an estimated 2.7 billion interactions expected through the 2025 shopping season.
US activity
Retailers in the United States are anticipated to focus heavily on mobile-first communications.
The volume of SMS messages during the season is projected to surpass 1.9 billion. RCS messaging, while still a smaller channel, is expected to reach over 57 million messages, representing a significant year-on-year jump. WhatsApp usage is predicted to climb by 44 percent, and email volumes are forecast to rise by over 50 percent on Cyber Monday. Infobip's research shows that most US shoppers are planning to spend between USD $250 and USD $1,000, indicating a strong intent to shop and respond to digitally delivered offers.
European shifts
In Europe, digital engagement is also on an upward trajectory. RCS volumes in the region are set to climb more than sixfold on Black Friday and fivefold on Cyber Monday. WhatsApp is expected to nearly triple its usage for customer interactions, as conversational channels play a bigger role in order updates and customer service. Email volumes in Europe are anticipated to rise by more than 50 percent, remaining a key channel for promotional campaigns. SMS usage will also increase, with a forecast 37 percent hike in messages on Black Friday.
Spending outlook
Consumer spending varies across European markets. Most shoppers in the United Kingdom intend to spend under GBP £250, with many open to outlays up to GBP £1,000. Combined, these trends suggest sales reaching several billion pounds across the country. Consumers in Italy, Spain, and Germany expect to spend between EUR €250 and EUR €500, pointing to a robust yet cautious retail environment.
Channel preferences
Preferences for communication channels differ by region. Email remains the preferred format for promotions and order confirmations in most European markets.
Southern European consumers show a strong tendency towards SMS because of its accessibility, while there is growing interest in RCS and WhatsApp in Northern Europe, aligning with wider adoption of chat-based digital experiences.
"Black Friday and Cyber Monday have evolved from single-day events into month-long conversations. With Apple adopting RCS and brands shifting towards highly personalised customer journeys, AI-powered conversational commerce is reshaping how retailers and shoppers connect. This season shows how important it is for businesses to meet customers where they are, using channels that are fast, relevant, and interactive," said Ben Lewis, Vice President of Marketing and Growth, Infobip.
