Parcelhero says High Street closures beat 2030 forecast

Parcelhero has published a new report revisiting its earlier forecast for the future of the UK High Street. It says store closures have already exceeded the level it projected for 2030.

The delivery and retail research firm estimates that 122,682 physical stores have closed since 2016, compared with its earlier forecast that 100,000 would shut between 2016 and 2030.

The new report revisits warnings made in Parcelhero's 2016 study, which argued that the rise of eCommerce would reshape town centres and wipe out large parts of traditional retail. That earlier work, discussed in Parliament, focused on the likely decline of department stores, fashion chains, bank branches and newsagents.

David Jinks, Head of Consumer Research at Parcelhero and lead author of both reports, said the latest findings suggest the direction of travel has not changed, even if some parts of the High Street have proved more resilient than expected.

"When we released our first study, 2030 seemed a long way off. With just four years remaining, now is the ideal time to see whether our town centres continue to wither on the vine or whether there are green shoots we didn't foresee 10 years ago.

At first glance, I'm afraid our new report, '2030: The High Street Fights Back?', is far from encouraging reading. That question mark in the title is there for a reason. The first report forecast 100,000 store closures by 2030. As our new report reveals, in some ways the situation is even worse than we feared. Since 2016, an estimated 122,682 physical stores have already closed."

Big names gone

The report lists a long line of brands that have disappeared from town centres, entered administration or sharply reduced their store estates over the past decade. Among those named are Jaeger, Toys R' Us, Maplin, Mothercare, Thomas Cook, Debenhams, Beales, Laura Ashley, Harveys Furniture, McColl's, Paperchase, Homebase, Ted Baker, Oddbins and Lloyds Pharmacy.

It also points to more recent pressure on chains including Claire's, The Original Factory Shop, Russell & Bromley and Quiz.

Department stores are presented as one of the clearest examples of structural decline. House of Fraser's store count has fallen from 59 to 23 since Sports Direct bought the business after it entered administration, while Debenhams' 165 department stores had all closed by mid-2021 following liquidation. Beales, which had 23 stores in 2019, no longer has any.

According to the report, more than 83% of UK department store space has disappeared since 2016.

Fashion retail has also suffered heavy losses. Arcadia Group alone closed more than 200 stores, while household names including LK Bennett, Karen Millen, Jack Wills, Cath Kidston, Oasis, Warehouse, TM Lewin, Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Burtons have all entered administration or closed large parts of their estates.

Branches and bookshops

The latest study also tracks the retreat of other traditional High Street staples. Around 6,660 bank branches closed between 2016 and 2025, adding to the long-term decline in branch banking as customers moved online.

Newsagents and stationery retailers have also shrunk. WHSmith sold its High Street stores to Modella Capital, where they were rebranded as TGJones, while Paperchase and McColl's have vanished from many town centres.

Not every prediction from a decade ago has been borne out. Jinks said bookshops have held up better than expected, with 1,052 independent bookshops still trading despite pressure on physical retail.

"Our new report goes on to feature many other categories where our original predictions were all too true. However, our crystal ball was not infallible. In 'The Death of the High Street', we predicted that bookshops were nearing their final chapter. We said, 'The traditional High Street book store industry is collapsing at 2.3% a year, with just 1,071 retail businesses remaining.' While there has been a decline, the current number of independent bookshops alone still stands at 1,052. Bookshops have turned over a new leaf."

Online shift

The report argues that the broad shift to online shopping remains a central force behind changes on the High Street, even though the pandemic-era surge did not continue at the same pace.

Online spending accounted for 14.2% of all retail spending in mid-2016, according to Parcelhero. It peaked at 35.6% in February 2021 during the pandemic before easing back to around 28% of the market. In February 2026, online sales represented 28.2% of total retail spend, the report says.

That leaves open the question of whether Parcelhero's earlier prediction that online would account for 40% of retail spending by 2030 will be reached.

The report says the pandemic created a short-lived boom that also exposed weaknesses among online-first retailers. It cites setbacks at Ocado, Asos and Boohoo, and notes the disappearance of rapid grocery delivery firms Jiffy, Gorillas and Getir. Missguided also entered administration after expanding too far.

Signs of life

Even so, the report identifies pockets of growth in physical retail. Convenience stores were the fastest-growing category in 2024 as major supermarket groups opened more smaller outlets. Coffee shops and cake shops also recorded net openings.

Jinks said the overall closure figure does not amount to a net loss on the same scale, because retail churn means some openings replace closures. But he added that closures still outnumber openings in important sectors and continue to threaten weaker shopping areas.

"Don't run away with the idea that eCommerce is on its way out and the High Street will return to its former glory, however. Our latest report reveals that online sales have fallen back since 2021, but they remain significantly higher than in 2016, at around 28% of the entire market. In February 2026, online held 28.2% of total retail spend, for example. The jury is still out on our predicted eCommerce share of 40% by 2030.

So have online's growing pains been the High Street's gain? Well, as our new report's title, '2030: The High Street Fights Back?', hints, there have been some encouraging signs. In 2024, the fastest-growing category was convenience stores, as large supermarket chains accelerated growth in this expanding market by opening increasing numbers of smaller stores. Likewise, coffee shops saw more than one net opening per week, and cake shops also grew in number. So at least part of our High Street looks set to enjoy a sweet future.

While we have lost 122,682 physical stores between 2017 and the end of 2025, that is not a net loss. That number is harder to determine, but it will be lower, as some churn is natural. Even so, as our report highlights, many more shops have closed than opened, especially in key sectors such as department stores. This still threatens the survival of some High Streets and shopping arcades. The High Street may not have reached a dead end by 2030 but, in this new age of retail, it will have arrived at its biggest crossroads."