Diamond Logistics eCommerce volumes beat forecasts

Diamond Logistics said its eCommerce volumes grew faster than internal forecasts in the first five months of the year, running 15% above expectations.

The UK fulfilment and same-day delivery group had expected monthly growth of about 10%, but results from January to May exceeded that level despite pressure across the wider retail sector. Diamond Logistics operates more than 35 fulfilment sites across the UK.

The figures come as retailers and logistics groups assess the impact of weaker consumer confidence, higher household costs and geopolitical instability on spending. Warehouse utilisation remained strong going into the third quarter, with goods continuing to move steadily through the network and no noticeable drop in demand for either essential or non-essential categories.

Industry data has been mixed. The British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales rose 3.7% year on year in May, the strongest increase since April 2025.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its UK growth forecast to 1% for 2026 while warning that geopolitical instability and domestic uncertainty could still weigh on activity through higher energy and food prices. The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer also fell by four points in April to its lowest level since autumn 2023 before recovering by two points.

Consumer demand

Kate Lester, Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Diamond Logistics, said the company was seeing firmer demand than some economic indicators suggest.

"There's no question the UK economy is under pressure right now, particularly with ongoing instability in the Middle East feeding through into energy markets, which could lead to a temporary spike in inflation and a rise in interest rates.

"We're already seeing the impact of rising fuel costs, and that always has a knock-on effect across the supply chain and consumer spending. Fears that prices will rise can hit household finances, leaving retailers to operate in a far more cautious and price-sensitive environment that naturally translates into a dip in sales over time.

"But what we're seeing on the ground is that consumer behaviour is holding up much better than some of the headlines would suggest. That's reflected not only in the growth we're achieving but also in fulfilment volumes, which remain strong across our nationwide network. Goods are still moving, and demand hasn't fallen away in the way people might expect in this kind of climate," said Kate Lester, Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Diamond Logistics.

Her comments suggest a more mixed picture for consumer demand than broad confidence measures alone indicate. For logistics operators, order flow and warehouse occupancy can offer an early read on actual spending patterns.

Diamond's business spans fulfilment, inventory management and last-mile delivery, placing it close to the day-to-day movement of online retail orders. That makes its trading performance a useful indicator of whether consumers are still buying routine and discretionary items even as budgets remain under strain.

Spending shifts

Lester said the business had repeatedly seen shoppers change what they buy rather than stop spending altogether during more difficult periods.

"In the last six years we've faced Covid, a succession of wars, persistent inflationary pressure and ongoing uncertainty around interest rates. As a result, people have become much more accustomed to an environment where things don't necessarily feel stable.

"We've also been around for much longer than six years, and the pattern we've seen over time, especially during periods of economic uncertainty, is that although consumers might pull back on bigger-ticket purchases, they still allow themselves smaller, more affordable treats that feel manageable.

"While that shift could be one reason our volumes remain strong, I think consumers are generally becoming more resilient. Rather than stopping spending altogether when times are tougher and budgets are squeezed by rising essential costs such as bills, their spending habits often just adapt slightly," said Lester.

That view aligns with a pattern seen across parts of retail in recent years, where consumers have traded down on some purchases while maintaining spending on lower-cost items and convenience-led buying. For fulfilment groups, that can still translate into steady parcel volumes even when demand for larger discretionary purchases softens.

Diamond's update also points to the continued importance of operational efficiency in logistics as retailers look to manage costs in a more price-sensitive market. Rising fuel prices and broader supply chain pressures can squeeze margins even when volumes remain stable.

The company was founded in 1992 and has built a national fulfilment network serving eCommerce merchants across the UK. Its latest figures indicate that, for now, online order volumes have remained steady even as the broader economic backdrop remains uncertain.