E-commerce growth redistributes across Europe in 2026

Tradebyte has published new analysis that points to a redistribution of eCommerce growth across Europe, with faster expansion in Central and Eastern Europe and the Nordics, and widening differences in category performance and returns.

The report, E-Commerce in 2026, draws on transactional and performance data from more than 1,000 brands and more than 90 retailers on the Tradebyte platform. It challenges the idea that online retail growth is fading. It describes changes in where demand appears, what shoppers buy, and which channels influence discovery.

"The story of eCommerce in 2026 is not one of slowdown, but of redistribution," said Matthias Schulte, CEO, Tradebyte.

Tradebyte said Western Europe still represented the bulk of gross merchandise value in its network. The top five countries of Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland accounted for more than 73% of 2025 GMV. The company said the growth rate shifted towards other regions.

Regional shifts

Tradebyte reported that Central and Eastern Europe grew by 59% across its network. It said the Nordics expanded by 37%. Tradebyte described both as the fastest-growing European regions in the dataset.

Several smaller markets recorded sharp increases in 2025, according to the report. Tradebyte highlighted Luxembourg, Norway, and Cyprus, Greece and Portugal. It said each recorded growth above 100% from a smaller base.

The company linked this performance to marketplace expansion and cross-border fulfilment. Marketplaces have increased their reach in some countries and have added options for international shipping and local delivery. Those changes can shift demand towards markets that previously generated less online volume.

"Our position at the intersection of brands, marketplaces and retailers allows us to see shifts in demand and performance as they happen. We're tracking how growth is moving across regions, categories and channels, and it's clear that brands that understand where demand is heading, and can operate with speed and precision, are the ones pulling ahead," said Schulte.

Category divergence

Tradebyte's analysis described clear gaps between product categories. Underwear ranked as the fastest-growing category in the report, with growth of 45%. Beauty followed at 16%, and sportswear at 10%.

The company said the pattern reflected sustained demand for essentials, comfort and wellbeing. Fashion remained the largest segment by GMV in the dataset. Tradebyte said fashion growth had become more value-led and utility-led.

Returns pressure

The report also placed returns at the centre of margin and cost discussions. Tradebyte said its benchmarks showed return rates around 14% in the UK. It reported return rates above 50% in Germany, Switzerland and Austria.

Tradebyte said those differences increased pressure on retailers' economics. It said many retailers were expected to phase out free returns in 2026. The company also pointed to fit accuracy, sizing data and product content quality as areas that retailers and brands would scrutinise more closely.

Discovery changes

Tradebyte said discovery continued to fragment across marketplaces, social platforms and AI-driven interfaces. It said algorithms played a larger role in visibility than traditional search or advertising alone. The company said a growing share of demand originated within platform ecosystems. It also said social channels and AI-driven interfaces shaped visibility before consumers reached a product page.

The report linked this shift to operational requirements for brands. Tradebyte said structured product data, real-time availability and pricing consistency had become prerequisites for visibility. It said brands with unified commerce foundations and governed data were better positioned for algorithmic ranking and expansion across regions and channels. It also referenced regulatory requirements including ESPR and Digital Product Passports.

Tradebyte also highlighted a wider role for AI inside eCommerce operations. It described uses in forecasting, pricing, stock allocation and content orchestration. The report said consumer adoption of AI-assisted shopping remained gradual. It said AI-driven ranking and discovery systems already influenced what shoppers saw and bought.

Gartner has pointed to pricing as a practical early use case for AI in retail operations, according to one of the report's contributors.

"Consumers rely on more AI support to make their decisions. Retailers and brands need to do the same to stay successful. Pricing is the AI application with the best impact-to-effort ratio according to Gartner, and therefore a great place to start," said Felix Hoffmann, CEO, 7Learnings.

Tradebyte also cited AI use in content production and its effect on conversion and returns, with another contributor pointing to measurable changes.

"When brands triple content output with AI, without losing accuracy, they don't just go faster, they grow smarter. We see +5-15% sales and −5-20% returns thanks to better imagery, consistent branding, and channel-tailored content at scale," said Gianni Serazzi.

Tradebyte operates an integration platform for fashion and lifestyle brands and connects brands to marketplaces and retailers. The company said its data signals reflected how demand shifts across geographies and channels as retailers adjust their marketplace strategies and fulfilment options across Europe.

"The story of eCommerce in 2026 is not one of slowdown, but of redistribution," said Schulte.